Benfica vs PSG in Round 3 of the 2022-23 UCL Group H games. The match is scheduled to start at 7:00 p.m. GMT on Wednesday, 5 October 2022. The match venue is Estadio da Luz, Lisbon.
Latest odds on betting sites
Benfica to win odds are priced at 4.40 (+340 American; 17/5 Fractional), the odds for a draw are priced at 4.45 (+345; 69/20), while Paris Saint-Germain to win odds are priced at 1.75 (-133; 3/4).
The chances of these outcomes are as follows: Benfica — 22%, draw — 22%, PSG — 56%.
Latest betting odds on Benfica vs PSG (5 October 2022):
- Over 3.5 goals — 2.20 (+120; 6/5)
- Under 3.5 goals — 1.70 (-143; 7/10)
- Asian handicap (+1.5) on Benfica — 1.45 (-222; 9/20)
- Asian handicap (-1.5) on PSG — 2.70 (+170; 17/10)
- Both teams to score (Yes) — 1.50 (-200; 1/2)
- Both teams to score (No) — 2.45 (+145; 29/20)
Match preview and statistics
Benfica smashed Juventus (2-1) in the last game of the group stage.
In the first half, Benfica was a bit stronger than their rivals. They attacked 27 times and made nine shots with three on target and finished two of them successfully. Benfica’s ball possession was equal to 51%. In the fourth minute, Arkadiusz Milik opened the score, but Joao Mario leveled it by scoring the penalty in the 43rd minute.
Benfica played much better than Juventus in the second half too. Roger Schmidt’s men controlled the ball 57% of the time and attacked 40 times. They made 10 shots with four on target, whereas Juventus made only five attempts to score with two on goal. Rafa Silva helped David Neres to score the winning goal in the 55th minute.
Benfica have conceded only one goal in the last five matches. They are priced with the odds of 6.60 (+560; 28/5) to finish this match without conceding goals.
Benfica team news: Lucas Verissimo – knee injury, Joao Victor – ankle injury.
PSG pulled Nice (2-1) down in the most recent fixture.
Les Parisiens absolutely dominated in the first half. They attacked 13 times and controlled the ball 65% of the time. PSG made five shots with two on target, whereas Nice made only one attempt to score which was not on target. In the 29th minute, Lionel Messi scored the first goal to open the score.
Nice played better in the second half than in the first half, but it was not enough to come back. PSG finished one out of seven attempts to score successfully. Nice made three shots with one on target during 32 attacks and bagged a goal too. In the 47th minute, Gaetan Laborde leveled the score. Kylian Mbappe scored the winning goal in the 83rd minute.
We have seen a total of under 3.5 goals in seven of the last eight matches with PSG participating. The same outcome is priced with the odds of 1.70 (-143; 7/10) this time.
PSG team news: Presnel Kimpembe – muscle injury, Timothee Pembele – knee injury.
Benfica vs PSG H2H
PSG have met Benfica nine times in H2H matches, but have won only three of them, whereas Benfica have five victories.
Lineups and key players
Benfica projected starting lineup:
- Odysseas Vlachodimos
- John Anthony Brooks
- Antonio Silva
- Alexander Bah
- Alejandro Grimaldo
- Enzo Fernandez
- Paulo Bernardo
- Rafa Silva
- David Neres
- Roman Yaremchuk
- Goncalo Ramos
Rafa Silva is the best scorer for his team. He scored a goal and made an assist in two matches of the 2022-23 Champions League.
PSG projected starting lineup:
- Gianluigi Donnaruma
- Sergio Ramos
- El Chadaille Bitshiabu
- Achraf Hakimi
- Marco Verratti
- Carlos Soler
- Nuno Mendes
- Lionel Messi
- Neymar Jr.
- Kylian Mbappe
Kylian Mbappe is the best scorer in the group stage of the 2022-23 UCL with three goals. Also, he has scored eight goals in the 2022-23 Ligue 1.
Prediction and betting tips
PSG and Benfica are first and second in their group with sixth points each. Also, both teams have huge streaks of matches without losses. PSG met Nice in the last match, but they did not create and convert a lot of moments against much weaker rivals. Also, they did not show absolute domination in the matches against Maccabi Haifa and Juventus in the group stage and conceded goals from each team.
Benfica's roster is not as strong as PSG's, but their performance is stable. They won over Maccabi Haifa to nil and played much better than Juventus in spite of the victory by only one goal. Benfica have won the last 11 home matches with five to nil. I believe that Double chance – 1X looks safe.
Betting prediction: Double chance – 1X
Odds: 2.15 (+115 American; 23/20 Fractional)